Action 5.2.5 : Definition, quantification and propagation of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in PSHA
Technical Issue
Review current practice – compare to state of the art in other domains and analyze alternatives to consider epistemic uncertainties (direct approach instead of logic trees)
Proposed Approach
- Efficient ways to quantify and propagate all sources uncertainty in PSHA codes accounting for correlation of parameters: Aleatory uncertainty (random variability) & Epistemic uncertainty (model, parameters, and statistical error)
- Develop efficient tools to conduct global sensitivity analysis
Deliverable
Methodology and implementation in PSHA code (OQ)