Action 5.2.5 : Definition, quantification and propagation of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in PSHA

Technical Issue

Review current practice – compare to state of the art in other domains and analyze alternatives to consider epistemic uncertainties (direct approach instead of logic trees)

Proposed Approach

Efficient ways to quantify and propagate all sources uncertainty in PSHA codes accounting for correlation of parameters: Aleatory uncertainty (random variability) & Epistemic uncertainty (model, parameters, and statistical error)
Develop efficient tools to conduct global sensitivity analysis

Deliverable

Methodology and implementation in PSHA code (OQ)