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  5. Action 5.2.4b : Site tem & uncertainty in GMPEs – effect of non-ergodic models

Action 5.2.4b : Site tem & uncertainty in GMPEs – effect of non-ergodic models

Technical Issue

The quantification of the site term and its epistemic uncertainty is essential for conducting partially non-ergodic PSHA (and hence allowing the use of single-station sigma). These uncertainties must be incorporated into the hazard calculation.

Proposed Approach

The multiple sources of uncertainty in estimating the site term may be correlated. This task will explore how to properly quantify incorporate this uncertainty into site-specific hazard studies.

Deliverable

Guide on incorporate the epistemic uncertainty of predicted site terms into PSHA analyses.