Action 5.2.5 : Definition, quantification and propagation of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in PSHA

Technical Issue

Review current practice – compare to state of the art in other domains and analyze alternatives to consider epistemic uncertainties (direct approach instead of logic trees)

Proposed Approach

  • Efficient ways to quantify and propagate all sources uncertainty in PSHA codes accounting for correlation of parameters: Aleatory uncertainty (random variability) & Epistemic uncertainty (model, parameters, and statistical error)
  • Develop efficient tools to conduct global sensitivity analysis

Deliverable

Methodology and implementation in PSHA code (OQ)