Action 5.1.1 : Non-poisson recurrence models for zones

Technical Issue

 

Non-Poisson models (renewal models) based on the time since the last earthquake are used for faults. There may be time-dependent rates for zones as well.  Depending the on spatial correlation lengths of non-Poisson behavior for zones, this can be a large contributor to the epistemic uncertainty in the hazard.  Need to develop the correlation lengths for non-Poisson behavior for zones.

Proposed Approach

Use California seismicity data to evaluate non-Poisson behavior for off-fault seismicity.  Develop models for the range scale factors on the Poisson rates for zones.

Deliverable

Model for the amplitude and spatial correlation length for the non-Poisson scale factors.